Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)…is located approximately 498 NM north-northwest of Kayangel

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)…is located approximately 568 NM southeast of Masirah Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

North Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)

According to the JTWC Warning number 9, sustained winds are 65 knots…with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating series of deep convective bands tightly wrapping into a well defined tropical cyclone. A microwave image indicates a large but nearly complete microwave eye feature with deep convection generally limited to the southern semi-circle.

TS 03W (Guchol) is forecast to rapidly intensify within the next 36 hours. During this time, as the narrow extension of the ridge to the north is broken down, 03W will continue to track northwestward in a favorable environment.

Low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and favorable upper level outflow provided by a tropical upper tropospheric trough is forecast to intensify the system to around 90 knots.

Past 36 hours, after the short wave trough breaks down the aforementioned blocking ridge to the north and combined with a reorientation of the ridging to the south and east, 03W will begin to recurve poleward. During this same time, cooling sea surface temperatures, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment will gradually weaken the system as it is propelled northeastward.

By 120 hours, now north of the 28th parallel and having weakened to 70 knots, 03W will continue picking up speed and weakening as it further interacts with and eventually integrates into the passing trough.

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)

According to the JTWC Warning number 7, sustained winds are 85 knots…with gusts to near 105 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts deep flaring core convection fully obscuring the low level circulation center beneath as well as banding features throughout the southern and western semicircles.

Persistent moderate vertical winds shear is tilting the system westward and sabotaging continued efforts to consolidate and rapidly intensify. A scatteromerty pass reveals an asymmetric wind field that is heavily favoring the southern semi-circle.

The window for TC 02A (Biparjoy) to significantly intensify is closing rapidly. As mentioned above, recent microwave imagery indicates persistent easterly shear is hampering any significant intensification. With that being said, 02A is forecast to track generally north-northwestward through the forecast period under the steering influence of a ridge to the south and ridge to the east.

As the blocking ridge to the northwest is broken down through 24 hours, warm sea surface temperatures and moderate outflow aloft will provide a small window for 02A to strengthen to a peak intensity near 95 knots. This intensification is contingent on whether the system can consolidate and maintain convective cover and prevent or counteract further tilting.

After 48 hours however, as the system progresses further into the Arabian Sea, vertical wind shear (vws) and dry air entrainment gradually erode the circulation. By 120 hours, 02A will be flanked on all sides by a sea of dry air, vws will continue to climb and the circulation will continue to weaken as it tracks poleward beyond the forecast period.