Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)…is located approximately 797 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB, Guam

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)…is located approximately 641 NM southeast of Masirah Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

North Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds are 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a well-defined and consolidating circulation with tightly wrapping bands of convection in all quadrants. A plethora of dry air to the north of the circulation is allowing for a partially exposed low level circulation center. A recent microwave image shows fragmented banding structures and marginal central convection.

Over the next 12 hours, TS 03W (Guchol) is forecast to begin a gradual turn north-northwestward under the steering influences of the northern ridge and ridge to the south and east respectively.

Currently in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear and moderate outflow aloft, 03W is forecast to intensify to around 55 knots by 24 hours. as the system develops, so too does the steering pattern.

By 36 hours, now under the influence of the deep layer mean flow pattern, 03W will track west-northwestward and continue to intensify. Near 48 hours, increasing vertical wind shear and falling sea surface temperatures will seriously hamper additional intensification.

By 72 hours, having progressed to around 80 knots, 03W will approach the axis of the southern ridge and steady up on a generally northward track. By 120 hours, now 85 knots, 03W will begin to feel the influence of a high amplitude trough that digs down from the west, resulting in increased speeds beyond the forecast period.

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)

According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds are 75 knots…with gusts to near 90 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a growing central dense overcast (cdo) with several vertical hot towers orbiting the fully obscured low level circulation center (llcc) beneath. A fortuitous color composite microwave image reveals a kidney bean shaped central convective element with banding features dominating the western semicircle.

TC 02A is forecast to continue tracking generally northward under the steering influence of the ridges to the south and north respectively. currently in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and moderate outflow aloft, which is overpowering mild vertical wind shear and limited dry air entrainment.

By 48 hours, after reaching 75 knots, the system will continue to push poleward into a dry environment, which coupled with reduced outflow aloft will slow its intensification trend. Through 120 hours, as the northern ridge continues to build to the south, 02A will be propelled poleward and deeper into the Arabian Sea.