Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Storm 02W (Mawar)…is located approximately 287 NM south-southwest of Yokosuka, Japan – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

North Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical Storm 02W (Mawar) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 57, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has become grossly sheared/elongated as it tracked under the strong prevailing westerlies.

TS Mawar is expected to continue to deteriorate as it tracks further. It has begun extra-tropical transition and by 12 hours will transform into a gale-force cold core low, with an expanding wind field.

There is a distinct possibility that TS 02W will dissipate and/or be absorbed before 12 hours.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 330 NM south-southwest of Guam

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a fully-exposed low level circulation center. Consolidation of the low-level circulation is also evident in recent total precipitable water animation. Thus far, convective development associated with the disturbance has been minimal.

Upper-level analysis indicates 98W is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate divergence aloft.

Global deterministic and ensemble models generally agree that the system will develop into a tropical depression over the next few days, although there is some uncertainty regarding the timeline and location of formation.

However, it appears likely that the center of the circulation will pass to the west of Guam, but the eastern inflow region with associated higher winds and convective development could affect Guam and the CNMI in about 48 to 72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.