Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, July 3, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone Beryl…according to the NHC advisory number 22A is located about 500 miles east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Beryl

STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT

Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two, however, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes by the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).(295 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across Jamaica at this time, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area along the southwestern Peninsula of Haiti today, and in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday or Friday night.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the
Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches
late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding
are anticipated.

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to impact the Cayman Islands later today and spread toward portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Windward Islands and Eastern Caribbean Sea :

Invest 96L

>>>  A fast-moving tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce an area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the next several days.

This system is then forecast to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by early next week where some development could occur. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Greater Antilles over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent