Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, October 3, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lidia)…is located about 670 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Koinu)…is located approximately 214 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lidia)

LIDIA HOLDS STEADY IN STRONG SHEAR

According to the NHC Advisory number 4…

Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest to north-northwest motion with a slower forward speed will continue for the next couple of days. Beginning on Thursday, a turn to the west-northwest and west are expected.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

>>> South of Central America…

A large but elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low pressure.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

>>> Western East Pacific…

An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Central North Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 14W Koinu

According to the JTWC Warning number 19…

Sustained winds were 100 knots…with gusts to near 125 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts typhoon 14W fighting to maintain intensity in a marginally favorable environment over the past six hours. Strong equatorward outflow aloft is observed, as evidenced by thin drifting filaments of cirrus clouds. Deep convection persists, most prominently in the southern semicircle, completely obscuring the eye. A radar image, however, depicts an asymmetrical, ragged eye (20 x 15 NM) embedded under the convective canopy.

Vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment continue to restrain the system from intensifying, despite the warm sea surface temperatures and exceptional outflow.

Typhoon 14W is forecast to track west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of ridging to the northeast and northwest through tau 12. the steering influence of the ridging to the northwest will provide forcing conducive of a westward track after 12 through 120 hours.

TY 14W is forecast to weaken steadily through the forecast interval due to the persistent vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment, as it approaches and tracks over southern Taiwan (around 36 hours) with further weakening as it tracks over the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait region between 48 to 96 hours.