Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, September 8, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Jova)…is located approximately 890 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Yun-yeung)…is located approximately 84 NM southwest of Yokosuka, Japan – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 11E Jova

JOVA WEAKENS BUT STILL A HURRICANE…PRODUCING DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO

According to the NHC Advisory number 18…

Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for the next couple of days. Jova is forecast to slow down further and turn westward by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely. Jova is forecast to become a remnant low early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

Central North Pacific…

There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Yun-yeung) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 14…

Sustained winds were 25 knots…with gusts to near 35 knots

Animated visible satellite imagery shows a weak, shallow circulation now moving rapidly towards the southern coast of Honshu. After meandering in roughly the same position for about 18 hours, tropical depression 12W has finally determined to make its visit to Japan after all and ejected northward at an accelerating pace. Track speeds are now up to 11 knots and by all appearances look to pick up another knot or two over the next couple of hours. A microwave image showed shallow banding features draped across the northern hemisphere, wrapping into the well-defined low level circulation center (llcc), with an elongated band of shallow convection extending northeastward to the southern tip of the Boso Peninsula.

The environment remains highly unfavorable, with extremely high (35-40 knots) southerly shear and mid-level dry air smothering the system, offsetting the robust poleward outflow.

With the ridge to the north having moved off to the east and integrated into a much larger, north-south oriented ridge, TD 12W has been kicked out onto a northward trajectory over the past six hours. This general motion is expected to continue through the short duration of the forecast period. Track speeds are likely to pick up another knot or two before the system makes landfall, along the western side of Suruga Bay within the next few hours.

Once it makes landfall, the center will track very near Mt. Fuji and then continue further inland to central Honshu. Due to the shallow nature of the circulation, Mt. Fuji will have an outsize effect on the system, which will slow down and move around the mountain, while at the same time rapidly disintegrating as a discrete circulation center. The system will continue to weaken as it approaches the coastline, then fully dissipate within the next 24 hours over central Honshu.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 197 NM southwest of Taipei, Taiwan

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image reveal an elongated circulation along a low level troughing area oriented south-southwest to north-northeast.

Analysis shows that the Invest is in a marginally favorable environment for development defined by robust equatorward outflow aloft and very warm sea surface temperatures offset by high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear.

Global numerical models are in fair agreement that Invest 91W will track northeastward through the Taiwan Strait over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90W…which is located approximately 282 NM west-northwest of Guam

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts centralized flaring convection with discrete, shallow bands wrapping into a broad low-level circulation.

Environmental analysis shows the invest is in a favorable environment for development defined by good poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot)
vertical wind shear, and warm surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 90W will gradually intensify as it travels northeastward over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.