Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, July 25, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Typhoon 05W (Doksuri)…is located approximately 238 NM south-southeast of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones

Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Typhoon 05W (Doksuri)

According to the JTWC Warning number 19…

Sustained winds were 110 knots…with gusts to near 135 knots

Typhoon 05W (Doksuri) has weakened slightly over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts warming cloud tops over the deep convective bands, especially along the western periphery as the system experiences land interaction with northeast Luzon. Radial outflow remains strong, especially in the northeast quadrant of the system which feeds into a mid-latitude upper low over the Ryukyu Islands, bolstering poleward outflow.

Typhoon 05W (Doksuri) is forecast to track northwestward into the Luzon strait through the next 36 hours. A pool of higher ocean heat content and significant radial outflow will offset land interaction through this period, therefore forecast intensities were held slightly higher than the JTWC intensity consensus.

After 36 hours, the system will gradually turn poleward as it rounds the southwest periphery of a north-south oriented subtropical ridge over the duration of the forecast period. Landfall is anticipated to occur between 60 and 72 hours along southeast mainland China, at which time the system is expected to rapidly weaken.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 211 NM east of Yap.

Animated infrared imagery show an area of flaring and cycling deep convection to the southwest of a broad and slowly consolidating low level circulation center (llcc). Recent  scatterometery revealed a broad circulation relatively weak circulation, with some high winds up to 25-30 knots along the southern flank as part of a westerly wind burst, but otherwise shows winds of 15 knots or less in the other quadrants..

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depict an elongated low-level circulation (llc) with fragmented banding beginning to wrap into the llc from the northern and southern peripheries.

Invest 91W remains in a marginal environment for development due to the northerly outflow from TY 05W placing the system under moderate (20 knot) vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are warm

Global models are in strong agreement that Invest 91W will steadily consolidate as it tracks north-northwestward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.