Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, September 15, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)…is located about 370 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)…is located about 630 miles west-southwest of the Azores

Tropical Cyclone 15L…is located about 1255 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IMMINENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

According to the NHC advisory number 43…

Lee has been moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) over the past few hours. A north to north-northwest motion is forecast to resume later tonight, and this motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Lee is a very large and dangerous storm. Maximum sustained winds, based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast, with Lee expected to become extra-tropical on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). NOAA Buoy 44011 located about 205 miles (180 km) north of the center has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/hr) and a gust of 67 mph (107 km/hr).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda during the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New England late this afternoon and spread northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border…1-3 ft
Long Island Sound…1-3 ft
Cape Cod…1-3 ft
Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket…1-3 ft
Boston Harbor…1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY…1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. 

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAIN: Tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, 50 to 100 millimeters, in eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and portions of New Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream flooding.

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)

MARGOT MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAKING A LOOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC

According to the NHC advisory number 35…

Margot is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. A faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 15L

Margot is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. A faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km) mainly to the north of the center.

According to the NHC advisory number 3…

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday and it could become a hurricane by late this weekend.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by mid-week.

Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent