Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, August 30, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 11L…is located about 785 miles east-southeast of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Franklin)…is located about 160 miles north-northwest of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)…is located about 15 miles west of Charleston, South Carolina

Tropical Cyclone 11L

DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC

According to the NHC Advisory number 7…

The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a remnant low in the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Franklin)

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN BERMUDA AS FRANKLIN PASSES TO THE NORTH…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST

According to the NHC Advisory number 42…

Franklin is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion should continue through Friday followed by a turn to the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to begin moving away from Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A weather station at the Bermuda airport recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust of 50 mph (80 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin are affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next couple of days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are occurring on Bermuda and will continue into this evening.

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)

IDALIA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS

According to the NHC Advisory number 18…

Idalia is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue through Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will move near or along the coast of South Carolina through tonight, and then just offshore of the coast of North Carolina on Thursday. Idalia will then move over the western Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Idalia is expected to remain a tropical storm when if moves off the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) were recently reported from saildrone SD-1045 which is located off the South Carolina coast.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from portions of North Florida through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with considerable impacts.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area in Florida and southern Georgia and will spread to the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina within the hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions will continue through today within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida west coast. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical storm warning area along the northeastern coast of Florida and Georgia and will spread into South Carolina and North Carolina through the day and into Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Keaton Beach, FL to Yankeetown, FL…7-11 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-8 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Keaton Beach, FL…3-5 ft
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…3-5 ft
Tampa Bay…3-5 ft
Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South
Santee River, SC…3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA…2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC…2-4 ft
Neuse River and Pamlico River…2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL…1-3 ft
South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC…1-3 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC…1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary’s
River…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the eastern and central Gulf coast from Florida to Louisiana, and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across central and northeast Florida into southeast Georgia. The tornado threat will increase through this afternoon across coastal South Carolina and continue into tonight for coastal North Carolina.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…

Invest 94L

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

>>> Central Subtropical Atlantic…

(Remnants of Gert)

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure are located several hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts northward or north- northeastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent