Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 24, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone (Franklin)…is located about 705 miles south-southwest of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Franklin)

FRANKLIN FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND

According to the NHC Advisory number 18…

Franklin is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through late Friday. A sharp turn toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday, with a northward or north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic continuing through early next week.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Franklin is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east of the center.

>>> Central Subtropical Atlantic:

Remnants of Emily…

A trough of low pressure located about 950 miles east of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

This system could still become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next day or so before it reaches colder waters and merges with a frontal boundary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

>>> Central Tropical Atlantic…

Invest 92L

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles.

Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the northeastern coast of Honduras is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent