Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, September 10, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca), is located approximately 17 NM southwest of Navgsta, Guam

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the coast of southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca)

According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a slowly consolidating system with a central dense overcast feature obscuring the low-level circulation center. fortunately, guam radar imagery does reveal what appears to be a consolidating llc with convective banding wrapping into a defined center, as well as strong convergent southerly flow and associated rainbands over the eastern semicircle, which are associated with a swath of 25-30 knot southerly winds. In general, the ascat imagery continues to suggest a broad circulation at the surface and some uncertainty in ascertaining the exact center which could lead to significant jumps in both the initial position and cpa calculations over the Guam region.

Upper-level analysis reveals a favorable environment with a point source overhead providing near radial outflow and low vertical wind shear.

Tropical depression 14W is slowly consolidating but is expected to gradually intensify to minimal tropical storm strength as it tracks near Guam over the next six hours. After 12 hours, the system will track northwestward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level ridge through 48 hours while intensifying at a slightly faster rate to about 55 knots by 48 hours.

Environmental conditions appear conducive through 48 hours. After 48 hours, the system will gradually turn west-northwestward as it tracks under the steering influence of the ridge to the north, which should remain strong through 120 hours due to the zonal mid-latitude flow and lack of a significant major shortwave trough that would typically weaken the ridge significant dry air entrainment is forecast by GFS and ECMWF to impact and hinder development from 48 to 72 hours. Dry air entrainment is also indicated in the mesoscale models but with a lesser, short-term effect.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 175 NM west of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression-like system, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, with a radius of maximum winds greater than 100 NM and the highest winds confined to the periphery of the circulation and a weak core of light winds.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a poorly-organized, broad low-level circulation center (llcc), and a large area of rotation with multiple mesovorticies. A microwave image depicts fragmented curved convective
banding displaced over the northwestern quadrant of the broad circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates that 94W is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots, good eastward and westward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global model guidance indicates a generally northwestward track with slow development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.