Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, January 27, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)…is located approximately 846 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)

According to the JTWC warning number 26, sustained winds are 100 knots…with gusts to near 125 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a compact, symmetrical, and dense system with a recently cloud covered pinhole eye.

Analysis indicates a highly favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate radial outflow.

TC Anggrek will continue on a west-southwestward to southwestward track under the steering influence of the southern ridge (str). After 48 hours, it will turn more poleward as it rounds the str axis, recurve and accelerate southeastward as the str recedes in response to an approaching mid-latitude trough from the southwest.

The highly favorable environment will fuel a steady intensification to a peak of 110 knots by 48 hours, afterward, increasing vertical wind shear associated with the strong westerlies, then cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the system.

Concurrently, by 96 hours, TC 06S will begin extra-tropical transition (ett), and by 120 hours, will transform into a storm-force cold core low.