Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, September 24, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Helene)…located about 145 miles south of the western tip of Cuba

>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Helene)

HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO

According to the NHC Advisory number 7

Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight or early Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding likely, and isolated major river flooding possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft
Tampa Bay…5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Mexico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Lower Florida Keys beginning on Wednesday, and are possible in the watch area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.