Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 23, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone John, is located approximately 30 miles south of Punta Maldonado, Mexico

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone John

According to the NHC advisory number 6A

EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST…DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT

John is moving toward the north near 8 mph (15 km/h). A slow motion to the north or north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. John is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible over the next few hours and John could become a major hurricane before making landfall along the coast of southern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area this evening.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week.

>>> East-Central Portion of the east Pacific:

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is no longer expected as it moves eastward towards the coast of southern Mexico the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>> Approximately 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished with the trough of low pressure located southeast of Hawaii. Environmental conditions will becoming increasing unfavorable for further development of this system as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W, which is located approximately 136 NM north of Da Nang, Vietnam

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an obscured and elongated area of sharp troughing where a poorly-defined low-level circulation (llc) with disorganized flaring convection along a stationary boundary used to exist.

Environmental analysis reveals an unfavorable environment for further development with weak equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. However, as the system transits south out of the Bay of Tonkin it will be met by high vertical wind shear of 25-30 knots.

Global models are in good agreement that invest 93W will continue to weaken as it tracks east-southeasterly around the coast of Hainan over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.