Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, August 28, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 530 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Hector)…is located about 1425 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)…is located about 710 miles west of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)…is located approximately 111 NM south-southeast of Sasebo, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Hector)

HECTOR WEAKENS…FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY

According to the NHC Advisory number 13

Hector is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hector is expected to become a remnant low on Thursday and dissipate on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

Central North Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

WEAKENING GILMA EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO HAWAII ON FRIDAY

According to the NHC Advisory number 43

Gilma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued motion toward the west to west-northwest is expected for the next few days, and on the forecast track the remnants of Gilma should pass near the Hawaiian Islands on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Gilma is expected to weaken to a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: The remnants of Gilma may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Hawaiian Islands as early as Friday, lasting through Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)

HONE WEST-NORTHWESTBOUND WELL NORTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL

According to the CPHC Advisory number 26

Hone is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected this weekend. On the forecast track, Hone will pass by well north of Johnston Atoll today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Hone is forecast to become a post-tropical low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 30, sustained winds are 85 knots with gusts to near 105 knots

Typhoon (TY) 11W has slowed in its poleward trajectory over the past six hours, with trochoidal (wobble) track motion still evident in animated radar imagery. track speeds remain erratic and below climatological averages as the system enters weak steering flow in a col region between subtropical ridging on both sides, east and west.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a ragged eye becoming more occluded as the system continues to weaken slightly. despite near-radial outflow and low vertical wind shear, TY 11W has a pronounced dry slot that appears poleward of the northern eyewall due to the introduction of land interaction as the system traverses the Ryukyu Island chain. The convection wrapping around the eye has demonstrated consistent fragmentation and a trend towards warming cloud top temperatures in all quadrants.

TY 11W is forecast to track northward through 24 hours turning sharply eastward after it makes landfall over western Kyushu. TY 11W will weaken gradually as it approaches Kyushu due to interaction with land and will rapidly weaken as it tracks inland through the forecast period. Track speeds will remain very slow (3-5 knots) especially after 24 hours when the mid-latitude flow to the north becomes more zonal leading to a weak steering environment where TY 11W will be trapped in a col area between subtropical ridging to the east and west.

After 96 hours, a major shortwave trough will emerge over the Sea of Japan and while still poleward of TY 11W, will begin ushering the system to the northeast at a quickening rate through the end of the forecast period.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the Arabian Sea being referred to as Invest 91A…located approximately 165 NM east-southeast of Karachi, Pakistan

Animated visible and enhanced infrared satellite imagery depict a broad, defined low level circulation center with embedded convection organizing over the northwestern coast of India. A microwave image reveals curved deep convective banding along the southern semicircle.

Global models indicate the system is expected to track westward, emerging over the northern Arabian Sea over the next 2-3 days, where it will find favorable conditions for development, including low to moderate vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots and warm sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.