Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, February 14, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active Tropical Cyclones 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean…

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90S…located approximately 285 NM north of Port Mathurin, Mauritius

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation with the deep convection becoming more persistent.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for further development of invest 90S with good poleward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 90S will slowly track eastward into an area of increased surface level convergence by 72 hours and rapidly consolidate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

There’s a second area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93S…located approximately 94 NM northwest of Mornington, Australia

Animated satellite imagery and a microwave pass depict formative shallow bands of convection wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis reveals that 93S is in a marginally favorable environment for development, with very warm sea surface temperatures, moderate dual-channel outflow, and low to marginal vertical wind shear (15-20 knots).

Global models are in good agreement that 93S will generally track to the southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria then interacting with land.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

There’s a third area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94P…located approximately 258 NM northeast of Niue

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave pass depicts a quickly consolidating low level circulation center with rain bands beginning to wrap in.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable environment for further development, with warm sea surface temperature, good radial outflow aloft, and low vertical wind shear (5-10 knots).

Global models are in good agreement that 94P will generally head southeastward over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.